"With great reward comes great risk..."

I know it's Christmas Eve and everyone is supposed to be doing all those fun Christmas things, but after today's news, I can't stop thinking about baseball. Yes, while sitting in church and eating dinner with the grandparents, I spent the whole time thinking (and talking with my brother) about the Cardinals' rotation in 2007 and beyond - just don't tell the parents!

So we know that Jeff Suppan found a new home with the Brewers to the tune of 4 years / $42 Million (link), and thanks to Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch (link), we now know the plan to fill out the rotation: resign Weaver and Mulder. I'll certainly miss Suppan - the guy wore the Birds on the Bat with pride, and who didn't love Soup's word of the day?

Now I know to a lot of people, this isn't very exciting. How does that make us better, you might say, or weren't they disasters last season? I think that if you're saying that, you're missing the big picture - steady and reliable are great, but as any businessman knows, the more reward you want, the more risk you have to take on. Steady doesn't win you the World Series, at least not in this playoff structure - remember it was the 83-win, 2006 team that won it all, not the 100-win 2005 team or even the 105-win 2004 team.

Let me first say that I know the risks. I know that Carpenter, Reyes, and Wells are injury concerns. I know that Mulder may never regain form, and I know that Wainwright could fizzle as a starter, but it's Christmas, and so today I'll be an optimist. Here's a look pitcher by pitcher:

Chris Carpenter - He's a legitimate #1, a true ace and about as reliable as they come. He'll pitch 200 innings, at least, in 2007 - you can mark that one down - and another Cy Young-caliber season is more likely than not. If you average his best two years (2005 & 2006), you get a 2.96 ERA. Even if you're in the camp that all those innings will take a toll, a little regression still leaves you with a dominant pitcher.

Anthony Reyes - After a rocky, inconsistent regular season, Reyes really came into his own in Game 1 of the World Series. In my mind, that 5.06 regular season ERA was a fluke. Bill James predicts Reyes will put up a 3.61 ERA. Thats very, very solid #3 if not borderline #2 material - not too bad for league minimum, don't you think?

Adam Wainwright - Wainwright was a stud during the 2006 regular season, but in my mind, the postseason made him a STAR. The guy went out there in the most heated, tense moments of the playoffs, and although it wasn't always pretty (except those Beltran and Inge strikeouts,) he got the job done. I've heard lots of doubts about him as a starter - that he doesn't have enough pitches or doesn't have the stamina. Whatever - Adam clearly has the competitive drive to hang with the best of 'em, and he flat out has BALLS. Bill James predicts a 4.01 ERA for him, not bad for a first year starter, and if nothing else, he will be certainly above average for a back of the rotation guy.

Kip Wells - Kip was just awful this year: 2 stints on the DL, only 2 wins, and an ERA over 6, but let's look at the positives. First of all, he WAS hurt this year and pitched for two AWFUL teams in Pittsburgh and Texas, so that was surely part of his pitiful performance. Plus, Wells has nasty stuff and Duncan absolutely loves the guy; he appears to be a classic Duncan rehab project. Let's also not forget that Kip has not once, but twice, put up an ERA under 3.6 (2002 and 2003.) If you put his best two years together and average them, you get a 3.44 ERA - and the guy's a veteran who's only making $4 million next year. Do I think he'll be that good? Probably not, but the guy's got nasty stuff and Duncan on his side, and keep in mind that his 1-year deal makes pitching well as important to him as it is to the organization.

Jeff Weaver - When Weaver first came over, he was an absolute mess - after a few innings the guy looked like he'd just plain given up. After several months of working with Dunc, we saw flashes of brilliance, and by the end of September, he put it all together and emerged a confident, dominant starter. Jeff has always been known to have great stuff, but also to be a head case and terribly inconsistent. Still, the guy will give you innings, and we know he can shine. In 2002, Weaver put up a 3.52 ERA, and if you factor the DH rule, the number seems all the more impressive. Maybe I'm over-optimistic, but it seems to me that DreamWeaver has emerged a new man, and with another year of Duncan by his side, a sub 4 ERA seems more of a certainty than a question, and a mid 3 ERA is definetly a possibility.

Mark Mulder - Cardinals fans everywhere are still fuming over the Mulder trade, and in hindsight, rightfully so. Still, I think the best way to do the trade justice is bring Mulder back. Despite all the criticism, Mulder's 2005 season was solid - a 3.64 ERA and 16 wins are nothing to sneeze at, especially when he's the SECOND best starter you have. Mulder was awful in 2006 but you have to give him his due - it takes a lot of gall to pitch hurt like that, especially in the contract year. Let's not forget that Mark has posted a sub-4 ERA four times in his seven years in the big leagues. The average of his top two years is even more impressive: a 3.29 ERA, which isn't even accounting for the DH in the AL. Is this realistic for Mulder in 2007? Probably not. Coming of such a serious shoulder injury, he'll probably have some struggles with control, but should be a solid contributer upon his return.

Stop for a minute and just consider the ridiculous upside of this rotation, both in terms of '07 and '08. All six of these guys could legitimately post a sub-4 ERA, and four of them (Carp, Reyes, Waino, and Weaver) probably will. And let's say hypothetically that Mulder comes back strong before the deadline - you can move Wells or Wainwright to the bullpen, or trade a starter (probably Reyes or Wells) for that final piece at the deadline. After the season, Wells will be gone, and the Cardinals will probably sign Westbrook or Buerhle (or maybe both,) which would leave Reyes, or possibly Mulder, as a valuable trade commodity - think that big bat that we're missing would be so hard to get after all?

Merry Christmas! Enjoy it - it's not very often that Santa brings something as awesome as a World Championship!

Thoughts On The Outfield ...

Right now, the Cardinals have even more questions to confront this offseason than they did last year. First and foremost is the issue of starting pitching - OBVIOUSLY. Anyone remember last year when we needed two corner outfielders? Well surprise! ... We still have outfield problems. Here are my thoughts on the 2007 Cardinals outfield, broken down by position.

LEFT FIELD:
Almost every offseason report you read raises the same question: Is the Chris Duncan we saw in 2006 for real or merely a fluke? I think those of us who are sane realize that Duncan's not going to hit 50 homers and drive in 150 next year. We DO have reason to be somewhat skeptical, as Duncan's 2006 slugging percentage was over 100 points higher than his previous career high. Still, that .363 OBP doesn't appear to be a fluke. He put up a .393 OBP in AA in 2004 and a .358 OBP in AAA in 2005, and thus is very valuable in front of Albert Pujols in the #2 spot. Additionally, we all know that Duncan is a great fastball hitter. The best place to see plenty of fastballs is in front of Pujols.

It is possible that Duncan reverts to his better minor league years, putting up a .260/.360/.500 line, and he could be even worse. His splits against lefties are downright terrible. At this point, he definitely looks like a platoon player. Also, we all know that Duncan's fielding is right up there with Manny's. Still, the guy has only played in the outfield for a year, and since he spent most of his career at first, he's not used to seeing the ball off that side. I personally have no doubt that his fielding will improve. And although he still could be a bust offensively next year, Bill James predicts Duncan's 2007 stats at something like this:

.273 BA, 33 HR, 90 RBI, .351 OBP, .511 SLG.

If you ask me, the possibility of 33 home runs and an .862 OPS from a player making the Major League minimum is too good a risk to turn down, even if he is a poor-fielding platoon player.

Verdict - Chris Duncan

CENTER FIELD:
No real questions here - Jimmy's our guy. I think it's safe to say that his days of 40 home runs, .300 average, 1.00+ OPS seasons are over. Still, the guy's been real banged up the past year and with offseason surgery and a few months to rest, I think Jimmy will make a return to form, of sorts, during the 2007 season. I'm thinking perhaps a .275 average, 25 home runs, and an OPS in the high .800's. If he stays healthy, I could see him hitting 30-35 home runs, posting a low .900 OPS, and maybe even winning another Gold Glove. I don't want to be overly optimistic - Jimmy Baseball's issue is always staying healthy - but we do have some reason to hope. Anyone remember the last time Edmonds came back from offseason shoulder surgery?

Verdict - Jim Edmonds

RIGHT FIELD:
As of now, we've got Juan Encarnacion penciled in next year for a cool $5 million. That's still a lot of money, but is anyone still as furious about his contract as they were last year? After the insane stupidity of the Pierre, Matthews Jr., and Soriano deals (the Cubs making bad signings makes my world go round), a league average right fielder for $5 million looks pretty good right now. If he was out in this ridiculous free agent market, some foolish team would probably pay upwards of $9 million for Juan's services.

In fact, I think this free agent market has really done us a HUGE favor. What was once seemed like a deadweight contract is now, dare I say it, a somewhat valuable trading piece. I know what you're thinking - JUAN AND VALUABLE IN THE SAME SENTENCE? - Hear me out on this one. In right field, Juan's numbers are basically league average and mediocre. But think about center field, where his numbers are well above average. If schmucks like Juan Pierre and one year wonders like Gary Matthews Jr. can make upwards of $10 million a year, doesn't Juan seem like a pretty attractive deal to a team in need of a non-lead-off center fielder? If I'm Walt Jocketty, I'm seriously looking for deals to dump Encarnaci-suck. Some names to consider, should Juan be traded:

Jose Guillen:
Guillen is coming off an injury plagued season, but the guy is a real solid right fielder when healthy. At worst he'll give you league average offensive production, and at best he can hit you 30 home runs and put up an OPS in the upper .800s. He's also a great defensive player with an absolute cannon of an arm. Having a good defensive right fielder is really important, as it allows Edmonds to cover more ground towards left and makes a less than stellar left fielder (Duncan perhaps?) much more tolerable. Still, Guillen has a fair number of drawbacks: anger management issues, failing to stay healthy, and lack of plate discipline. The health issue is, in my opinion, the most pertinent. Edmonds is already penciled in and is already a serious injury risk. Can the Cardinals really afford to go a long stretch with two starting outfielders on the DL? Still, Guillen has a lot of promise, and in this insane market, he could end up being a very nice bargain.

Trot Nixon:
Nixon is the same serious injury risk as Guillen, and also will probably be similarly undervalued since he's coming back from a season plagued with injuries. Still, Nixon is very productive when healthy; you can count on Trot to hit around 25 home runs and put up an .850 OPS. The guy certainly has above average plate discipline. He's also a lefty, and how good would he look hitting behind Rolen in the 6 spot? In theory, if we got Nixon and a left-handed basemen like Giles or Kennedy, you could go R-L-R-L down the whole lineup, which is a huge plus. My biggest concern with Nixon is his miserable .648 OPS versus lefties. We've already got Duncan, who can't hit lefties worth a lick; do we really want Spezio and another bench player manning the corneres EVERY time we face left-handed starters?

Verdict - Encarnacion ... for now...

UTILITY OUTFIELDER #1:
The very minimum requirement here is that the outfielder be able to play both corner positions. Ideally, the team would get a player who can play all three outfield positions, has a combination of pop and speed, and mashes lefties. I see three free agent possibilities and one in-house one:

Preston Wilson
Wilson had a good run with the Cardinals this season after being acquired in August. Supposedly Preston was a big voice in the clubhouse during the playoff run, having never been to the playoffs before this year. Wilson plays an adequate center and is a good defender at the corners. He has both some speed and some pop, but he doesn't exactly mash lefties. Over the last three years, Wilson has posted an .862 OPS against lefties, which is good but not exactly great. Still, he's a known quantity and would be OK as a backup and platoon partner with Duncan.

Craig Wilson
This other Wilson hits lefties slightly better than Preston, putting up a .875 OPS against lefties in the past three years. He's also a versatile player who can play both outfield and infield corners, as well as catcher. Despite that versatility, he's not a particularly good defender, especially in the outfield corners, where he's not much better than Duncan. Also, he doesn't really have any speed, stealing only 14 bases in his six-year career. Wilson is only two years removed from a 29 homer season, which will certainly drive up his price. Personally, I'll pass on Craig - we've already got our super-utility guy in Spezio.

Jose Cruz Jr.
Cruz is a plus defender anywhere in the outfield, winning a Gold Glove back in 2003 with the Giants. He's also a switch hitter (a definite plus on a La Russa team) and still mashes lefties (his 2006 OPS against lefties was .942.) He still has some pop and can also swipe some bags. He's also fairly durable and would probably be the best center field option if Edmonds got hurt. Honestly, I'm not sure how no one picked him up when the Dodgers cut him lose in August, but it should drive his price down.

John Rodriguez
Rodriguez is an intriguing option. He can play both corners decently, and despite being a lefty has posted a .902 Career OPS against left handed pitchers. Still, his exposure has been extremely limited, so it's not enough of a sample to judge by. His power seemed to evaporate this year, but I have confidence that it could return. He has good plate discipline and, more importantly, he's already under our control and quite cheap.

Verdict - Jose Cruz Jr.

UTILITY OUTFIELDER #2 (DEFENSIVE REPLACEMENT):
There really isn't any controversy here. We all know that Tony loves having a late inning defensive replacement, and with a butcher like Duncan in the field, it's definitely a necessity. The spot really comes down to whether or not So Taguchi wants to play another year, and if he doesn't, it’s Skip Schumaker's spot to lose.

If it were my choice, I would take Schumaker in a heartbeat. He'd save the organization money (probably only $500,000 or so) and, in my opinion, is a slightly better defensive player than Taguchi. He's also a left-handed batter, which is valuable on the bench, and a real quick player. He also has the reputation as a good bunter, which fits right in with Tony's game plan. I really do believe he will be the guy next year; Taguchi is old and would do well to retire on a high.

Verdict - Skip Schumaker

2007 Outfield - Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Cruz Jr., and Schumaker