Sunday, November 26, 2006

Thoughts On The Outfield ...

Right now, the Cardinals have even more questions to confront this offseason than they did last year. First and foremost is the issue of starting pitching - OBVIOUSLY. Anyone remember last year when we needed two corner outfielders? Well surprise! ... We still have outfield problems. Here are my thoughts on the 2007 Cardinals outfield, broken down by position.

Almost every offseason report you read raises the same question: Is the Chris Duncan we saw in 2006 for real or merely a fluke? I think those of us who are sane realize that Duncan's not going to hit 50 homers and drive in 150 next year. We DO have reason to be somewhat skeptical, as Duncan's 2006 slugging percentage was over 100 points higher than his previous career high. Still, that .363 OBP doesn't appear to be a fluke. He put up a .393 OBP in AA in 2004 and a .358 OBP in AAA in 2005, and thus is very valuable in front of Albert Pujols in the #2 spot. Additionally, we all know that Duncan is a great fastball hitter. The best place to see plenty of fastballs is in front of Pujols.

It is possible that Duncan reverts to his better minor league years, putting up a .260/.360/.500 line, and he could be even worse. His splits against lefties are downright terrible. At this point, he definitely looks like a platoon player. Also, we all know that Duncan's fielding is right up there with Manny's. Still, the guy has only played in the outfield for a year, and since he spent most of his career at first, he's not used to seeing the ball off that side. I personally have no doubt that his fielding will improve. And although he still could be a bust offensively next year, Bill James predicts Duncan's 2007 stats at something like this:

.273 BA, 33 HR, 90 RBI, .351 OBP, .511 SLG.

If you ask me, the possibility of 33 home runs and an .862 OPS from a player making the Major League minimum is too good a risk to turn down, even if he is a poor-fielding platoon player.

Verdict - Chris Duncan

No real questions here - Jimmy's our guy. I think it's safe to say that his days of 40 home runs, .300 average, 1.00+ OPS seasons are over. Still, the guy's been real banged up the past year and with offseason surgery and a few months to rest, I think Jimmy will make a return to form, of sorts, during the 2007 season. I'm thinking perhaps a .275 average, 25 home runs, and an OPS in the high .800's. If he stays healthy, I could see him hitting 30-35 home runs, posting a low .900 OPS, and maybe even winning another Gold Glove. I don't want to be overly optimistic - Jimmy Baseball's issue is always staying healthy - but we do have some reason to hope. Anyone remember the last time Edmonds came back from offseason shoulder surgery?

Verdict - Jim Edmonds

As of now, we've got Juan Encarnacion penciled in next year for a cool $5 million. That's still a lot of money, but is anyone still as furious about his contract as they were last year? After the insane stupidity of the Pierre, Matthews Jr., and Soriano deals (the Cubs making bad signings makes my world go round), a league average right fielder for $5 million looks pretty good right now. If he was out in this ridiculous free agent market, some foolish team would probably pay upwards of $9 million for Juan's services.

In fact, I think this free agent market has really done us a HUGE favor. What was once seemed like a deadweight contract is now, dare I say it, a somewhat valuable trading piece. I know what you're thinking - JUAN AND VALUABLE IN THE SAME SENTENCE? - Hear me out on this one. In right field, Juan's numbers are basically league average and mediocre. But think about center field, where his numbers are well above average. If schmucks like Juan Pierre and one year wonders like Gary Matthews Jr. can make upwards of $10 million a year, doesn't Juan seem like a pretty attractive deal to a team in need of a non-lead-off center fielder? If I'm Walt Jocketty, I'm seriously looking for deals to dump Encarnaci-suck. Some names to consider, should Juan be traded:

Jose Guillen:
Guillen is coming off an injury plagued season, but the guy is a real solid right fielder when healthy. At worst he'll give you league average offensive production, and at best he can hit you 30 home runs and put up an OPS in the upper .800s. He's also a great defensive player with an absolute cannon of an arm. Having a good defensive right fielder is really important, as it allows Edmonds to cover more ground towards left and makes a less than stellar left fielder (Duncan perhaps?) much more tolerable. Still, Guillen has a fair number of drawbacks: anger management issues, failing to stay healthy, and lack of plate discipline. The health issue is, in my opinion, the most pertinent. Edmonds is already penciled in and is already a serious injury risk. Can the Cardinals really afford to go a long stretch with two starting outfielders on the DL? Still, Guillen has a lot of promise, and in this insane market, he could end up being a very nice bargain.

Trot Nixon:
Nixon is the same serious injury risk as Guillen, and also will probably be similarly undervalued since he's coming back from a season plagued with injuries. Still, Nixon is very productive when healthy; you can count on Trot to hit around 25 home runs and put up an .850 OPS. The guy certainly has above average plate discipline. He's also a lefty, and how good would he look hitting behind Rolen in the 6 spot? In theory, if we got Nixon and a left-handed basemen like Giles or Kennedy, you could go R-L-R-L down the whole lineup, which is a huge plus. My biggest concern with Nixon is his miserable .648 OPS versus lefties. We've already got Duncan, who can't hit lefties worth a lick; do we really want Spezio and another bench player manning the corneres EVERY time we face left-handed starters?

Verdict - Encarnacion ... for now...

The very minimum requirement here is that the outfielder be able to play both corner positions. Ideally, the team would get a player who can play all three outfield positions, has a combination of pop and speed, and mashes lefties. I see three free agent possibilities and one in-house one:

Preston Wilson
Wilson had a good run with the Cardinals this season after being acquired in August. Supposedly Preston was a big voice in the clubhouse during the playoff run, having never been to the playoffs before this year. Wilson plays an adequate center and is a good defender at the corners. He has both some speed and some pop, but he doesn't exactly mash lefties. Over the last three years, Wilson has posted an .862 OPS against lefties, which is good but not exactly great. Still, he's a known quantity and would be OK as a backup and platoon partner with Duncan.

Craig Wilson
This other Wilson hits lefties slightly better than Preston, putting up a .875 OPS against lefties in the past three years. He's also a versatile player who can play both outfield and infield corners, as well as catcher. Despite that versatility, he's not a particularly good defender, especially in the outfield corners, where he's not much better than Duncan. Also, he doesn't really have any speed, stealing only 14 bases in his six-year career. Wilson is only two years removed from a 29 homer season, which will certainly drive up his price. Personally, I'll pass on Craig - we've already got our super-utility guy in Spezio

Jose Cruz Jr.
Cruz is a plus defender anywhere in the outfield, winning a Gold Glove back in 2003 with the Giants. He's also a switch hitter (a definite plus on a La Russa team) and still mashes lefties (his 2006 OPS against lefties was .942.) He still has some pop and can also swipe some bags. He's also fairly durable and would probably be the best center field option if Edmonds got hurt. Honestly, I'm not sure how no one picked him up when the Dodgers cut him lose in August, but it should drive his price down.

John Rodriguez
Rodriguez is an intriguing option. He can play both corners decently, and despite being a lefty has posted a .902 Career OPS against left handed pitchers. Still, his exposure has been extremely limited, so it's not enough of a sample to judge by. His power seemed to evaporate this year, but I have confidence that it could return. He has good plate discipline and, more importantly, he's already under our control and quite cheap.

Verdict - Jose Cruz Jr.

There really isn't any controversy here. We all know that Tony loves having a late inning defensive replacement, and with a butcher like Duncan in the field, it's definitely a necessity. The spot really comes down to whether or not So Taguchi wants to play another year, and if he doesn't, it’s Skip Schumaker's spot to lose.

If it were my choice, I would take Schumaker in a heartbeat. He'd save the organization money (probably only $500,000 or so) and, in my opinion, is a slightly better defensive player than Taguchi. He's also a left-handed batter, which is valuable on the bench, and a real quick player. He also has the reputation as a good bunter, which fits right in with Tony's game plan. I really do believe he will be the guy next year; Taguchi is old and would do well to retire on a high.

Verdict - Skip Schumaker

2007 Outfield - Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Cruz Jr., and Schumaker


At 11:49 AM, Blogger KardiacKiehl said...

So what happens to J-Rod? Traded, sent back to the minors (does he still have options left), etc.?

At 2:55 PM, Blogger KardiacKiehl said...

I echo my brother's comments that Encarnacion's contract may have become an asset in this overpriced FA market. If we can trade him to a team looking for a center fielder (Rockies?), I'd lobby heavily for Jose Guillen to be the replacement.

Guillen does have character issues to be sure, but so have Edmonds and Weaver and others (reportedly) before coming to STL. I'm not as concerned about his injury history as some might be, and, when healthy, he has been a solid .280 20-25 HR 80 RBI mid-.800's OPS type guy who is an even better plus defender than Encarnacion (and would probably at a lower price than Juan). While I like Trot Nixon, I would be concerned about getting too lefty heavy in the outfield (Duncan, Edmonds, and Nixon are all dreadful against lefties) and I am not sold that Nixon can stay healthy.

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