Thoughts On The Outfield ...
Right now, the Cardinals have even more questions to confront this offseason than they did last year. First and foremost is the issue of starting pitching - OBVIOUSLY. Anyone remember last year when we needed two corner outfielders? Well surprise! ... We still have outfield problems. Here are my thoughts on the 2007 Cardinals outfield, broken down by position.
LEFT FIELD:
Almost every offseason report you read raises the same question: Is the Chris Duncan we saw in 2006 for real or merely a fluke? I think those of us who are sane realize that
It is possible that
.273 BA, 33 HR, 90 RBI, .351 OBP, .511 SLG.
If you ask me, the possibility of 33 home runs and an .862 OPS from a player making the Major League minimum is too good a risk to turn down, even if he is a poor-fielding platoon player.
Verdict - Chris
CENTER FIELD:
No real questions here - Jimmy's our guy. I think it's safe to say that his days of 40 home runs, .300 average, 1.00+ OPS seasons are over. Still, the guy's been real banged up the past year and with offseason surgery and a few months to rest, I think Jimmy will make a return to form, of sorts, during the 2007 season. I'm thinking perhaps a .275 average, 25 home runs, and an OPS in the high .800's. If he stays healthy, I could see him hitting 30-35 home runs, posting a low .900 OPS, and maybe even winning another Gold Glove. I don't want to be overly optimistic - Jimmy Baseball's issue is always staying healthy - but we do have some reason to hope. Anyone remember the last time
Verdict - Jim Edmonds
RIGHT FIELD:
As of now, we've got Juan Encarnacion penciled in next year for a cool $5 million. That's still a lot of money, but is anyone still as furious about his contract as they were last year? After the insane stupidity of the Pierre, Matthews Jr., and Soriano deals (the Cubs making bad signings makes my world go round), a league average right fielder for $5 million looks pretty good right now. If he was out in this ridiculous free agent market, some foolish team would probably pay upwards of $9 million for Juan's services.
In fact, I think this free agent market has really done us a HUGE favor. What was once seemed like a deadweight contract is now, dare I say it, a somewhat valuable trading piece. I know what you're thinking - JUAN AND VALUABLE IN THE SAME SENTENCE? - Hear me out on this one. In right field, Juan's numbers are basically league average and mediocre. But think about center field, where his numbers are well above average. If schmucks like Juan Pierre and one year wonders like Gary Matthews Jr. can make upwards of $10 million a year, doesn't Juan seem like a pretty attractive deal to a team in need of a non-lead-off center fielder? If I'm Walt Jocketty, I'm seriously looking for deals to dump Encarnaci-suck. Some names to consider, should Juan be traded:
Jose Guillen:
Guillen is coming off an injury plagued season, but the guy is a real solid right fielder when healthy. At worst he'll give you league average offensive production, and at best he can hit you 30 home runs and put up an OPS in the upper .800s. He's also a great defensive player with an absolute cannon of an arm. Having a good defensive right fielder is really important, as it allows
Trot Nixon:
Nixon is the same serious injury risk as Guillen, and also will probably be similarly undervalued since he's coming back from a season plagued with injuries. Still, Nixon is very productive when healthy; you can count on Trot to hit around 25 home runs and put up an .850 OPS. The guy certainly has above average plate discipline. He's also a lefty, and how good would he look hitting behind Rolen in the 6 spot? In theory, if we got Nixon and a left-handed basemen like Giles or Kennedy, you could go R-L-R-L down the whole lineup, which is a huge plus. My biggest concern with Nixon is his miserable .648 OPS versus lefties. We've already got Duncan, who can't hit lefties worth a lick; do we really want Spezio and another bench player manning the corneres EVERY time we face left-handed starters?
Verdict - Encarnacion ... for now...
UTILITY OUTFIELDER #1:
The very minimum requirement here is that the outfielder be able to play both corner positions. Ideally, the team would get a player who can play all three outfield positions, has a combination of pop and speed, and mashes lefties. I see three free agent possibilities and one in-house one:
Wilson had a good run with the Cardinals this season after being acquired in August. Supposedly
Craig Wilson
This other
Jose Cruz Jr.
Cruz is a plus defender anywhere in the outfield, winning a Gold Glove back in 2003 with the Giants. He's also a switch hitter (a definite plus on a La Russa team) and still mashes lefties (his 2006 OPS against lefties was .942.) He still has some pop and can also swipe some bags. He's also fairly durable and would probably be the best center field option if
John Rodriguez
Rodriguez is an intriguing option. He can play both corners decently, and despite being a lefty has posted a .902 Career OPS against left handed pitchers. Still, his exposure has been extremely limited, so it's not enough of a sample to judge by. His power seemed to evaporate this year, but I have confidence that it could return. He has good plate discipline and, more importantly, he's already under our control and quite cheap.
Verdict - Jose Cruz Jr.
UTILITY OUTFIELDER #2 (DEFENSIVE REPLACEMENT):
There really isn't any controversy here. We all know that Tony loves having a late inning defensive replacement, and with a butcher like
If it were my choice, I would take Schumaker in a heartbeat. He'd save the organization money (probably only $500,000 or so) and, in my opinion, is a slightly better defensive player than Taguchi. He's also a left-handed batter, which is valuable on the bench, and a real quick player. He also has the reputation as a good bunter, which fits right in with Tony's game plan. I really do believe he will be the guy next year; Taguchi is old and would do well to retire on a high.
Verdict - Skip Schumaker
2007 Outfield -